The idea
Base-rate neglect is so robust it survives explicit teaching. The reliable cure is natural frequencies: 1,000 people, not 0.001 probabilities.
Lesson
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Questions (3)
| Question | Type | Difficulty | Drift | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In a class, 60% study French and 25% study both French and Spanish. Given that a student studies French, what … | numeric | Moderate 0.20 | — | — (0) |
| A test for a disease is 99% accurate in both directions. The disease affects 1 in 1,000 people. You test posit… | mcq | Hard 1.00 | — | — (0) |
| Explain in your own words why P(A|B) and P(B|A) are usually different. Give a concrete example where confusing… | short | Very hard 1.60 | — | — (0) |